Welcome to the weekend edition of By the Numbers. I hope everyone was able to enjoy the past two Phoenix Suns wins. They made it an exciting game against the winless Miami Heat and decided to make it a little less nerve-wracking against the Orlando Magic. Now on to the numbers:
Leandro Barbosa scored a career-high 39 points against the Orlando Magic on Saturday. (NBAE Photos)
The Suns are 5-0 when they do the following:
- Score 103 points or more
- Allow 101 points or less
- Shoot 43% or more
- Allow 53 rebounds or less
They are 5-1 when the following happens:
- The team get 40 rebounds or more
Other points of note:
- The Suns have scored 106 points 3 times in the past 7 games. They are averaging 104.2 points per game while allowing 99.2 points per game
- Leandro Barbosa scored a career-high 39 points against Orlando on Saturday night
The reason I pointed out the 40 rebounds or more number above is because I did a lot of analysis on last season’s rebounds over the past week. Here are some interesting points to note about last season:
- When getting 40 or more rebounds, the Suns are 37-5
- When getting out-rebounded by 12 or more, the team is 7-5
- When out-rebounding their opponent, the Suns are 28-1
- When getting out-rebounded by their opponent, Phoenix is 32-21
- When getting out-rebounded by their opponent but still getting more than 40 rebounds themselves, the Suns are 13-4
- When getting 39 or less rebounds, the team is 24-16
- When getting 40 rebounds or more, the Suns out-rebounded their opponents 25 out of 42 times
- When getting 39 rebounds or less, the Suns out-rebounded their opponents only 5 out of 40 times
So what does all of this mean? Well, first of all, it seems fairly obvious that we should be rooting for our team to get 40 or more rebounds. When they do that, they have an 88% win percentage. That’s not too shabby.
Second, if the Suns can possibly out-rebound their opponent, it almost guarantees a victory. They had a 96.5% winning percentage last season when that happened.
Finally, if Phoenix can’t outrebound their opponent, they should still try to get to that 40 rebound mark. The team still won 76% of their games last season.
I think there are a couple of reason for this. First, when the Suns rebound the ball, it is probably a little easier for them to run. I haven’t been able to find the numbers to back this up but I would think that the Suns have a higher shooting percentage after a rebound than after an opponent’s made shot.
Second, the more rebounds Phoenix gets, the less that are available for their opponents. If they get an offensive rebound, it gives them another chance at making a basket. If they get a defensive rebound, it takes away a chance to score for the team they are playing against. Even if the Suns get an extra 5 defensive rebounds per game, that means 5 less scoring chances for their opponent.
What do you think about all of this? Noticed anything else that gives the Suns a good chance of winning? Email me at email@example.com. Several of you have e-mailed me and I appreciate your comments and questions. I’m hoping to answer those questions in a mailbag post sometime in the next couple of weeks so keep the questions coming!